The Carryover Effect

The heat is definitely on in New York. The Mets are starting to get an awful lot of static for their play so far this season. "What's wrong with the Mets?" That's been the question (the edited version, of course), not only this year but for the last two thirds of the '07 season which concluded with...close your eyes, Met fans...The Collapse. So, what IS wrong with the Mets?

Well, first off, the Mets aren't the only disappointments this season. The Padres, Rockies and Tigers are not living up to their vaunted expectations for any combination of reasons ranging from age to injuries to underachieving, all of which can actually be considered common maladies. The Mets' situation, however, is far from common. Last season they never seemed to get over their tough playoff loss to the Cardinals the year before. Similarly, last year's meltdown continues to effect them this season whether they know it or not. It was far worse then the loss to St. Louis and it's beginning to look like it has psychologically finished this team. This is not a typical slump. What the Mets are going through is a form of trauma, and while this is not unheard of in sports, it can be practically impossible to overcome. This is known as The Carryover Effect.
The Mets can deny it all they want, but here are some prime examples of other teams that have gone through similar situations:

Last year the Dallas Mavericks went 66-16 and were favored to win their first NBA championship. Instead, they were sucker-punched by the Golden State Warriors in a major upset.
This year Dallas struggled all season and even after acquiring Jason Kidd they got punked by the Hornets in five games, costing coach Avery Johnson his job.

N.L., 1964: Leading by six games with 12 to go the Phillies suddenly burst into flames and dropped ten straight, losing the pennant by one game to St. Louis.
Over the next several years the Phillies fortunes died a slow death as they gradually faded into the cellar.

NBA, 1974-75: The Washington Bullets and the Boston Celtics each had 60-22 records and were considered the two best teams in the league. In the playoffs the Bullets knocked the Celtics out in six games and entered the NBA Finals as heavy favorites against the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors shocked everyone by sweeping the Bullets and winning the championship.
In each of the next two years the Bullets won only 48 games, finished second in their division on the last day of each season to Cleveland, then Houston, and lost to those teams in the playoffs. It took a couple of years and some roster changes but the Bullets finally won it all in 1978.

A.L. 1982: The California Angels, with four former MVPs (Rod Carew, Reggie Jackson, Fred Lynn and Don Baylor) were up two games to none against Milwaukee in what was then a best-of-five playoff format, but then blew it by dropping three straight.
The next year they lost 92 games and finished 5th in the West.

A.L. 1986: After three years of inconsistent play and many roster moves the Angels made it back to the playoffs and led the Red Sox three games to one with game five at home. They had a 5-2 lead in the ninth inning and were just one strike away from their first ever World Series berth. But the Sox rallied and took a one run lead. California tied it but Boston pulled it out it in the tenth and proceeded to wipe out the Angels in the final two games at Fenway.
In 1987 the Angels finished in a tie for last place.
[A tragic footnote is that Angels' closer Donnie Moore, who surrendered the lead, was vilified by the fans and media and wound up committing suicide three years later.]

MLB 1986: Everyone knows what happened to the Red Sox in the 1986 World Series.
The next season the Sox win total dropped from 95 to 78.

N.L. 1988: The Mets won 100 games but were upset by the Dodgers in the playoffs, a team the Mets went 10-1 against during the regular season.
The following year the Mets won only 87 games, were never a major factor, and afterwards went into a long rebuilding phase.

A.L. 1990: The Oakland A's went 103-59 and entered their third consecutive World Series with an all-star at virtually very position (including the National League batting champ Willie McGee, acquired from St. Louis in a last-second deal that beat the trade deadline). However, the A's were torpedoed in four straight by the Cincinnati Reds.
The A's won only 84 games in '91 and were never the same again.

A.L. 2001: The Seattle Mariners won a record 116 games before the Yankees gave them the boot in the playoffs.
The Mariners never came close to 100 wins again and over the next few years dropped out of contention.

It doesn't always happen that way. The 1969 Orioles went 109-53 and at that time were considered one of the most dominant teams in years. In the most celebrated upset of all time they lost the World Series in five games to the Miracle Mets.
The Orioles responded the next year by going 108-54 and took out the Reds four games to one.

Sometimes it even has a reverse effect. The Red Sox spectacular comeback over the Yankees in the '04 ALCS was emotionally-charging enough to springboard them to their first world championship in 86 years and enabled the Sox to pretty much switch identities with the Yankees, who are now the followers and are in the process of sinking into the Harlem River with Cap'n Hank at the helm. [See "Hanky's Yankees" post]

After all the bewilderment over the Mets' play, a few people are finally starting to consider The Carryover Effect. As a team the Mets don't seem to have the mental toughness or experience to deal with what happened last year. Then again, who does? In all fairness, considering how historic their collapse was, it's hard to imagine any team not having problems dealing with it. Unfortunately for the Mets, they are trapped deep inside and it's killing them.

Yogi Berra once said, "90% of this game is half mental." So, with that idea in mind, what to do? There's got to be an antidote, right? Firing the manager is the typical kneejerk reaction but that may not be the answer here. In fact, there may not be an answer at all, and that's the paradox. What ails the Mets is much more than just a slump, and therefore, much, much harder to solve than the relatively normal problems that ail the Padres, Rockies and Tigers.
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It's a sports psychologist's dream, but a Met fan's nightmare.